Articles
Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
The iPhone 18 Pro Equals About 17 Months of Iran's 1405 Minimum Base Wage, and 11.5 Grams of Gold; 94% of Its One-Year Rial Price Rise Was the Exchange Rate (Thursday, 10 September 2026)
At Apple's official 1,199 dollars and the free-market dollar of 232,700 tomans recorded on 9 September 2026, the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro converts to 278.9 million tomans: about 16.8 months of Iran's 1405 minimum base wage, roughly 3,220 working hours, and 11.5 grams of 18-karat gold. Of its 168 million toman one-year rise, about 94% came from the exchange rate and about 6% from Apple's pricing decision.
Apple launched the iPhone 18 Pro $100 dearer, a gap that reaches $300 at one terabyte, and priced the foldable iPhone Duo at $1,999 (Thursday, 10 September 2026)
Apple introduced the iPhone 18 Pro, the Pro Max and its first foldable, the iPhone Duo, on Wednesday, 9 September 2026. The 256GB iPhone 18 Pro costs $1,199, $100 above the iPhone 17 Pro, but at one terabyte the gap reaches $300. At a free-market dollar of 232,700 tomans on 9 September 2026, the Pro works out to about 279 million tomans for an Iranian buyer and the Duo to about 465 million.
Hemmati Says Central Bank Has Supplied $500 Million in Negotiated-Rate FX to the Parallel Market; Gap With the Free Dollar Still 21 Percent (Thursday, Shahrivar 5, 1405)
Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said Thursday, Shahrivar 5, 1405 (August 27, 2026) the bank has supplied $500 million in negotiated-rate FX to the parallel market to curb "fake FX jobs," with more available if needed. Sahmino's board put today's negotiated dollar at 158,039 tomans against a free-market dollar near 200,600 tomans, a gap of about 21 percent.
Dollar, Gold and Coin All Pulled Back Today; Dollar Retreats From a 204,820-Toman Peak to the 200,000-Toman Range (Tuesday, August 25, 2026)
On Tuesday, August 25, 2026, Tehran's free-market dollar retreated to about 200,000 tomans this evening after a two-day surge that had taken it to a peak of 204,820 tomans; global gold, domestic 18-karat gold and the Emami gold coin fell together. A day earlier, Central Bank Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati had announced $175 million a day in FX supply and a plan to allocate $20 billion to industry by year-end, calling the exchange-rate gap "temporary."
Tehran's Free-Market Dollar Crosses 200,000 Tomans for the First Time Tonight (Sunday, Shahrivar 1, 1405)
Iran's free-market dollar in Tehran crossed 200,000 tomans (2,000,000 rials) tonight, Sunday, Shahrivar 1, 1405 (August 23, 2026), for the first time in at least a month, trading as high as 201,300 tomans; three independent sources (Sahmino, TGJU and Alanchand) confirm the level. That is up about 4 percent from last night's Sahmino-registered rate of 192,700 tomans.
Tehran Dollar Jumps 1.19 Percent Tuesday, Ending a Five-Day Slide, to Reach 187,800 Tomans (20 Mordad 1405)
Tehran's free-market dollar, which fell for five straight sessions from Wednesday, August 5 to Monday, August 10, 2026, its longest losing streak of the year, to a one-month low, jumped about 1.19 percent (2,200 tomans) on Tuesday, August 11 to reach 187,800 tomans. Gold and the Emami coin rose in tandem, while Brent crude jumped nearly 5 percent above $87 as a Strait of Hormuz risk premium returned to markets.
Inflation at 83.9 Percent Has Outrun Money Growth of 53.3 Percent; the 30.6 Point Gap the Printing Press Did Not Create (Friday, 31 July 2026)
Iran's broad money reached about 15,581 thousand billion tomans at the end of 1404 (March 2026), growing about 53.3 percent. Yet year-on-year inflation in Tir 1405 (July 2026) stood near 83.9 percent, roughly 30.6 points ahead of money growth. The printing press did not create that gap: velocity, inflation expectations and the nearly 39,600 toman dollar spread on 30 July 2026 did. New money also travels through markets in sequence, not all at once.
What Moves the Dollar? The Four Channels That Set the Exchange Rate
This lesson explains where Iran's dollar rate comes from: the FX supply and demand balance, the rial layer (money supply and inflation), expectations, and political or sanctions shocks. With a hypothetical worked example and a few dated real figures, you will see why the rate can sit still for weeks and then jump in days.
The Ceasefire Nobody Signed: Gold Fell 3.3% and the Dollar 1.8% on a Day the Global Ounce Did Not Move at All (Saturday, 25 July 2026)
On Saturday, 25 July 2026 (3 Mordad 1405), 18 karat gold fell 3.29%, the Emami coin 2.18% and the free market dollar 1.80% in Iran. Yet the global gold ounce did not move at all, because world markets were closed for the weekend. That makes the entire decline a domestic bet on a story no side has officially confirmed: a reported 10 day ceasefire proposal. Sahmino measures the gap between what the market priced and what is actually verified. This analysis is not buy or sell advice.
Zarif's Foreign Affairs Vision and Iran's Markets: Two Scenarios for the Dollar, Gold, and Stocks
In a Foreign Affairs essay, former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif argues that West Asia's own states should build the region's security and economic order. Sahmino lays out his case, the serious criticism of it, and the likely consequences for the dollar, gold, and the bourse under two scenarios, de-escalation and continued war, with a look at the July 21, 2026 market where the free-market dollar trades near 190,000 tomans.
Iran 2026 in the Mirror of The Economist: Civilizational Weight Against Economic Reality
The Economist's annual "The World Ahead 2026" special does not put Iran on the cover, yet Tehran recurs through its pages: a player with real geographic and civilizational weight, but an economy that constrains its ability to "enter the game." With the free-market dollar near 187,700 tomans, point-to-point inflation close to 88 percent, and the IMF projecting a 6.1 percent contraction for 2026, Sahmino measures the multipolar narrative against the numbers (21 July 2026).
Iran's Multiple Exchange Rates: Why Is There More Than One Dollar Price?
Learn why one dollar has several prices in Iran: we separate the free-market rate, the Exchange Center rate, and the preferential rate, say who each rate is for, and use a hypothetical worked example plus dated real figures to show what the gap between them means.
Iran's Dollar Crosses 180,000 Tomans, Coin Premium Jumps 6.85%; Why Did Global Gold Fall at the Same Time? (Thursday, July 9, 2026)
Iran's free-market dollar crossed 180,000 tomans early Thursday, July 9, 2026 (18 Tir 1405), reaching 180,195 tomans. The same week, the Emami coin's premium jumped 6.85% to about 7,091,000 tomans, even as global gold fell for a second straight day. The widening gap is a live gauge of domestic fear.
Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire "Over"; Rial Smashes Through 180,000 Toman, Tehran Stock Exchange Sheds 52,000 Points (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
Donald Trump told the NATO summit in Ankara that the ceasefire with Iran is "over." Hours later, on Wednesday, July 8, 2026 (17 Tir 1405), Iran's free-market dollar broke through 180,000 toman and the Tehran Stock Exchange's main index fell 52,012 points (1.9%) to the 2.68 million range. Brent crude jumped about 7% globally.
US Revokes Iran Oil Sales Waiver; Brent Crude Tops $76 After Attacks on Three Tankers in Hormuz (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
The US Treasury revoked Iran's dollar oil sales waiver (General License X) on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, hours after an attack on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it with a narrower "General License X1." No new sales are authorized, and in-process transactions have until July 17 to settle. Brent crude jumped to $76.04 a barrel in after-hours trading in response.
Iran Kicks Off $2bn Industrial FX Allocation; Central Bank Adds $4.5bn to Reserves, Vows No Return to Subsidized Rate (Monday, July 6, 2026)
Iran's central bank governor says the country's foreign currency reserves grew by $4.5 billion during the recent war months, and that a first $2 billion phase of industrial FX allocation began Saturday, July 4. Governor Hemmati stressed the bank will not revive the old subsidized "preferential rate" system. The move coincides with revenue from a temporary US license letting Iran sell oil for dollars.
